The Trump Factor: 2025, a year of anticipation

The year 2025 unfolded less like a calendar of events and more like a suspense novel in which one character loomed over every page: Donald Trump. For those watching from Washington to New Delhi, London to Canberra, the central motif of the year was anticipation—anticipation of decisions, announcements, reversals, or simply a new headline that would change the political weather.

“History does not repeat itself, but it does insist.”— often attributed to Mark Twain, and rarely more apt when describing Trump’s influence in 2025.

Unlike conventional leaders whose influence is exercised mainly through policy and legislation, Trump’s power has always been atmospheric. In 2025, that aura of unpredictability became a defining feature of global politics. Markets, diplomats, and allies alike moved cautiously, pricing in volatility even in the absence of new executive orders. The mere possibility of a statement, an action, or a tweet reshaped decisions in boardrooms and embassies alike.

Politics as Performance, Policy as Afterthought

In 2025, the United States remained a functioning democracy. Elections were held, courts convened, and legislatures debated legislation. Yet, increasingly, politics resembled performance more than governance. Public attention, and indeed political capital, was consumed by questions of perception rather than execution: How would Trump react to this? What narrative would he drive today? Which allies would adjust, and how quickly?

This performed dominance is subtle yet profound. It shapes the behaviour of others even when no policy has changed. By remaining an active gravitational centre, Trump effectively turned uncertainty into a tool. Economic decisions were delayed or accelerated in anticipation; foreign policy moves were hedged; multilateral commitments were continually assessed not only for their content but for the probability of reversal.

The key insight is that the Trump factor operates not by breaking systems, but by stretching their elasticity, revealing how far institutions can bend before legitimacy and trust begin to fray.

The World Watches and Waits

For much of the world, Trump’s influence in 2025 was a year-long exercise in patience and conjecture. Allies learned to hedge statements; adversaries measured provocations carefully. Multilateral institutions, accustomed to managing crises, had to adapt to managing anticipation itself.

Europe, for instance, had to consider not only Washington’s formal commitments but the possibility that any promise could be reshaped by rhetoric or strategic calculation. Asia-Pacific governments monitored trade signals, military manoeuvres, and diplomatic cues, fully aware that the US stance could pivot overnight. Even global markets, notoriously sensitive to sentiment, registered every hint of potential disruption as a measurable risk.

In short, 2025 demonstrated that political influence is no longer defined solely by legislative achievements or executive orders. Sometimes it resides entirely in the realm of expectation and uncertainty.

Trump and Domestic Discourse

Domestically, Trump’s continued visibility reshaped political discourse. Media cycles were driven less by policy debates than by the analysis of strategy, intention, and reaction. Polarisation, already entrenched, became a self-sustaining phenomenon: each statement from Trump created narratives that energised supporters, antagonised opponents, and ultimately demanded attention from institutions of governance.

For political analysts and citizens alike, the 2025 lesson was clear: the power of anticipation rivals the power of action. In many ways, the year resembled a live experiment in psychological governance, demonstrating how influence can operate independently of formal authority.

Anticipation as a Global Factor

One of the most remarkable consequences of Trump’s year-long influence was its transnational reach. It was not only Americans adjusting to the rhythm of unpredictability; it was governments, corporations, and international organisations recalibrating their strategies constantly. The Trump factor became a global variable—an invisible hand affecting trade decisions, defence planning, diplomatic timing, and even climate negotiations.

By turning anticipation into a measurable risk, 2025 revealed a subtle but potent reality: leadership is not always defined by what one does, but also by what the world expects you might do.

Lessons for 2026

As the calendar flips to 2026, the lingering question is how democracies, markets, and institutions will respond when anticipation itself is weaponised. The Trump factor has shown that influence can be decoupled from immediate action, and that perception often carries as much weight as policy.

For the United States, the challenge is internal: can institutions maintain function under a permanent state of uncertainty? Can citizens distinguish governance from spectacle without eroding trust? For the global community, the lesson is practical: resilience must now incorporate unpredictability as a standard variable, not an outlier.

Equally, 2025 underscores a subtle truth about human behaviour: uncertainty can energise, immobilise, and polarise all at once. Leaders, policymakers, and analysts alike must decide whether to react, hedge, or wait—each choice carrying consequences for the broader system.

Conclusion: Anticipation as Influence

If 2025 was anything, it was a demonstration that anticipation itself can be a form of power. Trump did not need to act decisively at all times; the mere possibility of action reshaped global political and economic landscapes.

“Power is not only what you do, but what people expect you might do.”
— a reflection perhaps more accurate now than ever.

As 2026 begins, the world carries this lesson: uncertainty, properly wielded, can govern as effectively as authority. And in a year dominated by the shadow of anticipation, that may be the most enduring influence of all.

(Disclaimer: This article is analytical commentary. It is based on observable political trends and events from 2025. All interpretations are the author’s, and it is not investigative reporting. While real-world actors and policies are discussed, the focus is on influence, perception, and systemic effects rather than individual actions or intentions.)

(The writer is a retired officer of the Indian Information Service and a former Editor-in-Charge of DD News and AIR News (Akashvani), India’s national broadcasters. I have also served as an international media consultant with UNICEF Nigeria and been contributing regularly to various publications)