One Nation,Three Elections:Trinal elections for tri-level polity

Ever since  the committee on “ One  nation  one  election”   submitted  its  report Media  is  abuzz  with  the  topic . Reams of  print  ,  hours of  TV  programming and    numerous  radio discussions  have  flooded the  public  discourse. However  , almost all of it has  been inside the box – namely, weighing its pros and cons .
 Some of  the positives include  that  ONOE  is  cost effective and time saving ;  that  it’ll  ensure  better delivery of  services  - as there would be more time at hand ; policy making  would  improve - with reduced uncertainty, more  predictability ; there  would  be  focused governance and continuity in policy decisions... It  is being  said that  ONOE could potentially reduce horse-trading ; deployment of security forces too may be  reduced; freebies culture might be  toned down , inflation may get lower and crime rate may come down. Some even go to the extent of  saying that GDP may gain upto 1.5 percent.
 On the  flip side , the opinion is  that regional parties may suffer ; smaller parties may face the heat  ; issues may get confused;  concerns may be muddled…It  may  so happen  that polity  gets totally electoralised-  every act is seen  with the  prism of  votes  - none  with greater public  good…ONOE  may reduce federalism  …  convert  to confederalism….Moreover, it is believed  by some that election expenses  aren’t  always bad- money  circulates in the economy… Thus  the  rationale  of  saving  money is diluted;  also ,predictability may reduce  accountability…Besides ,  there  could  be the loss of  cathartic effect  and  the  normally  dormant  system which  gets  activated  once  the model code  is  announced  may  remain inactive for  longer  periods. 
All said , everything  mentioned  above is status quoist  .. If the negatives are  as  many as  the benefits, where  is  the  point  in  bringing in  any  change ? That   would be merely for the sake of it.
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Hence , an out of  the  box approach is needed …An ideal solution  wherein the negative fallouts may be largely neutralised is by going in for  “ One  nation two elections ”... National Elections followed by Federal Elections at the halfway mark –after 2.5  years ...The term of  assemblies remains 5 yrs. Besides , Federal Elections may serve as a sort of  referendum  for government and initiate course  correction. Some of  the  changes that may be  needed include - Extension  of  Presidents or  Governor’s   rule  to 1.25 yrs-  by amending  the  Constitution  …Current   provision allows  for  six months  at a  time  ; extendable to three years  subject to clearance  by  Parliament every six months …With  amendment ,  approval  of  Parliament  will not be  needed again till 1.25  years (15 months – Quarter term) ;  Provision of  both  extending as well as truncating the terms : shortest  1.25 yrs.  and  longest  6.25 yrs. Amendments to the Constitution related to the duration of parliamentary and state legislative houses as well as the dissolution powers of the President  are required .Currently , there is no provision for  extending the term of a sitting  government  once it loses confidence… National parties could  fight  alone in states /Assemblies too only  if they had a status  in state also of a regional party – meaning they should’ve  got the minimum seats and / or votes  in Assembly elections too...Else , contest in coalition/alliance with state recognized party…Alternatively , fight  Independently till achieving  the number of  seats /votes…Likewise, regional parties to be  allowed  to contest  National elections  only when they have requisite seats / votes …Else , contest in alliance  Coalition / independently  till acquiring the status…This will allow both   National  as  well regional parties to Grow and /or evolve… Provision of  Presidential National Govt.-in the intervening period-not  with officers but with a chosen set of   Legislators/ Parliamentarians in the proportion of their numbers is needed… Rechristen  Lok Sabha  & Vidhan Sabha elections as  National  Elections &  Federal Elections   respectively…Dates and  time  fixed for  all elections :only twice : during school holidays/post harvesting  (Summers  &Winter)…In the intervening period ,  have Continual  elections - One third RS ,Vidhan Parishad  members  elected every 2years…Not  more than two consecutive  terms can be out of  sync ...A  President’ / Governor’s  rule to be brought in as cooling off and bring polity back  in  sync.                                                                                                                                                                                       ***

Based upon the above proposed  changes, various scenarios  likely  to emerge could  be  -If  loss of majority “after” Day one  and  “ before ” 15  months (1/4th term) then vote of   confidence   by  opposition needed “simultaneously” alongwith     seeking no-confidence  ...Else, government  continues till 15 months… If  even “after” 15 months ,neither  the incumbent  cobbles  majority nor the challengers bring in “confidence motion”  then fresh elections  with   truncated term - 45 month tenure  to be held. ..If loss of majority between 15 – 30 months (half the term);  no  vote of  confidence  needed  simultaneously as a pre -condition(majority may be cobbled post facto)  …If  majority shown beforehand, then  government  for remaining term,   else  elections  after  30  months :President /Governor’s  rule in between ; new  government will be  for 2.5yrs… If majority loss “ after 30” months and  “ before ” 45 months, then President’s /  Governor’s rule automatically comes in the intervening period ( 30 to 45 months) … If  no claimant even “till”45 months, then elections after 45 month with  Extended term   :  duration of  next term added ( Total 75 months :6.25 yrs. )…  If   government falls  “after” After 45 months, caretaker  government  –comprising proportionate  politicians (not officers) to be put in place… Regular elections in last case scenario after  60 months.
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To  sum , ONOE  is the  current form , would  be largely symbolic - merely procedural  reform  bandied as systemic  change. On the other hand   One  nation , two election approach :National Elections : 5  yrs. : Federal Elections - All assemblies-at halfway mark after  two and  half  years   would  be  the  “ideal”  approach … For  a ‘ perfectionist” model  -One  nation three  elections  : National  elections  every 5 years  , all state assembly elections combined  after  two and  a half years  and  all  local bodies’ polls together  after  45 months (3.75 yrs)  may be needed.
For  implementing  ONOE , only approval  from  both houses of  Parliament  is  needed. Based  on which , there  is talk  of  implementing it  from 2029. However,    for   “One  Nation , three  elections “, approval     from Parliament  as  also from state assemblies is needed. That  would  push the  implementation date  further. Our view  is that   target should  be to  go in  for  ONOE  in 2029 .Observe  for  two terms  while   simultaneously seeking approval  from State Assemblies and   go in  for  One  nation two elections by 2039  before  finally  opting  for  “One  nation , three  elections” in 2047.
In a sense ,  ONOE  seems to be pushing  towards  a  Presidential system;  One  nation  trinal   elections would   nudge it  in the direction of  Prime Minister –cum- Presidential  system . ONOE   more  or less  brings   in only  quantitative  change …  Without  qualitative  changes ,  it’ll usher in elected autocracy ,oligarchy , mobocracy -  at best  a pseudo democracy. For a  more inclusive  - cum- participative  democracy   one  nation , three elections may be the  answer.  
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(Writer is an Independent Journalist & Documentary filmmaker. Based in Bhopal)