IMF likely to upgrade India’s GDP forecast after robust Q3 growth

India’s stronger-than-expected economic performance in the third quarter has prompted the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to signal a possible upward revision to its growth forecast for the country in the upcoming World Economic Outlook (WEO) update.
IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said India continues to play a central role in supporting global economic growth and has emerged as one of the world’s key growth engines. Under the IMF’s earlier Article IV staff report, India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the 2025–26 financial year was projected at 6.6%, primarily driven by robust domestic consumption.However, India’s third-quarter growth exceeded expectations, increasing the likelihood of a forecast upgrade. Kozack said the IMF will release its January update of the World Economic Outlook in the coming days, which will include revised growth numbers for India.“The bottom line for us on India is that it has been a key driver of global growth, and growth has been quite robust,” she said, noting that India’s economic performance continues to stand out among major economies.

The IMF’s comments underscore sustained confidence in India’s economic fundamentals, supported by strong consumer demand, steady investment activity and policy stability. Economists say an upgrade in the IMF’s outlook would further reinforce India’s position as one of the fastest-growing large economies globally.At the global level, the IMF had marginally raised its 2025 global GDP growth forecast to 3.2% in October, from 3.0% earlier, as the impact of US tariffs proved less severe than anticipated. The global growth projection for 2026 was maintained at 3.1%.
Meanwhile, the United Nations has also upgraded India’s growth outlook. It raised India’s economic growth projection for 2026 to 6.6%, from an earlier estimate of 6.4%, and forecast growth of 6.7% for 2027. According to the UN’s World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026 report, India’s GDP is expected to expand 7.4% in 2025.The UN attributed the improved outlook to resilient private consumption and strong public investment, which are expected to offset the impact of steep US tariffs on Indian exports. Recent policy measures, including income tax cuts, goods and services tax (GST) rationalisation and lower interest rates, are also seen as providing additional momentum to near-term growth.
While global growth remains moderate and risks persist from geopolitical tensions and rapid technological shifts, India’s strong economic performance continues to provide a significant boost to the world economy.

(Business Correspondent)