India’s GDP numbers credible:Ex-IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath

Former International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Economist Gita Gopinath has dismissed concerns over the credibility of India’s GDP data, stating that her years at the global institution revealed no evidence suggesting that the country’s economic numbers are unreliable or flawed.Speaking at Davos on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum, Gopinath addressed the long-running debate around the accuracy of India’s GDP estimates and explained how the IMF evaluates national economic data across countries.Gopinath served as the IMF’s Chief Economist from 2019 to 2022 and later as Deputy Managing Director between 2022 and 2025, roles that gave her direct oversight of the Fund’s assessment of national accounts and macroeconomic data.
How the IMF Assesses GDP Numbers
Explaining the IMF’s internal review process, Gopinath said questions over GDP data quality are common across emerging and developing economies, not unique to India. She noted that many such countries face limitations in statistical capacity, which affects how national accounts are compiled.“When I was chief economist of the IMF, we used to ask ourselves this question all the time. And the truth is, for pretty much most emerging and developing countries of the world, they would get close to a C-grade on their national account statistics,” she said. According to her, gaps often arise due to the absence of robust producer price indices and the lack of comprehensive double deflation methods.She emphasised that the IMF does not rely solely on headline GDP figures. Instead, it cross-checks growth trends using a wide set of high-frequency indicators to detect inconsistencies or anomalies. Based on these assessments, India did not raise any specific red flags.“When you look at other kinds of high-frequency data, we didn’t see any smoking gun evidence that there was something particularly bad about India’s GDP numbers versus any other countries,” she said.
What the ‘C Grade’ Signifies
Addressing why India continues to receive a C grade in IMF evaluations, Gopinath clarified that the grading system is absolute, not relative. A C grade reflects structural and methodological limitations rather than deliberate inaccuracies.“The grades are an absolute measure, not a relative measure. Most emerging markets find themselves in that bracket because they don’t have national statistics being done the way it ideally should be. That requires investment,” she explained.She added that such a grade does not imply that the data is fundamentally unreliable, but highlights the need for stronger statistical systems, better coverage, and improved methodologies.Gopinath also pointed to ongoing efforts to address these gaps. The IMF, she said, is working closely with India’s statistical authorities to enhance data collection and improve national accounting practices.“There’s an important round of rebasing that’s being done right now, which will help improve the quality of the statistics,” she noted, suggesting that future GDP estimates could be more robust and comprehensive.
IMF Remains Positive on India’s Growth
In its 2025 annual staff report, the IMF retained a C grade for India’s national accounts, citing “methodological or coverage-related shortcomings that hinder effective economic surveillance.” At the same time, the Fund has grown more optimistic about India’s economic outlook.The IMF recently raised its GDP growth forecast for FY26 by 0.7 percentage points to 7.3 per cent, up from an earlier estimate of 6.6 per cent, underlining confidence in India’s medium-term growth prospects even as statistical reforms continue.

(Business Correspondent)