Indian Economy to grow at 9.2% in Current fiscal year

India will see an economic growth of 8 to 8.5 per cent for the coming fiscal year, down from 9.2 per cent growth estimated in the current year, the annual Economic Survey predicted a day before the Budget. Principal economic advisor Sanjeev Sanyal said on Monday there was a revival in economic activities to pre-pandemic levels in the year 2021-22. He said even though the health cost of the second Covid-19 wave was much more severe, the economic cost of it was much milder. Sanyal said India’s economy is estimated to have grown by 9.2 per cent this year after a contraction of 7.3 per cent in the previous year. “It is just a little short of where it was pre-pandemic,” the principal economic advisor said.“The agriculture sector, not surprisingly, was least affected by lockdowns of various kinds. This sector grew even in 2020-21 and again in 2021-22. The industrial sector did go through a contraction and now it is about 4.1 per cent above pre-pandemic levels,” he said. He said the services sector was the most affected by the coronavirus-induced lockdowns. The segment (of services sector) which includes tourism, travel, and hotels is still 8.5 per cent below where it was before the pandemic. It is a sector that is still impacted.

Chief economic advisor V Anantha Nageswaran said the Economic Survey 2021-2022 has been compiled by the principal economic advisor and his team. “The government has persued a four-pronged approach. The approach – short term support to economy, especially to vulnerable sections during these uncertain times while keeping a firm eye on physical stability and at the same time never let go of the opportunity that a crisis provides to initiates structural and supply-side reform,” he said.

The Railways is set for a jump in its allocation with the Economic Survey 2021-22 pushing for a rapid growth in Capex for the national transporter to make it future-ready and engine of national growth. The survey said the influx of funds is needed to not only meet the passenger demand but increase the modal share of railways in freight to 40-45 per cent from the present 26-27 per cent as laid down by the National Rail Plan.The NRP lays down the road map for capacity expansion of the railway network by 2030 to cater to growth up to 2050. The target of 40-45% modal share for railways is necessary from the perspective of sustainability and also from the national commitments made globally for reducing emission levels. Unlike growth, which is linear, capacity grows in surges (sawtooth curve) depending on project completion timelines, the survey said. According to the National Rail Plan, the freight ecosystem is expected to grow from the present level of 4700 MT to 8200 MT by 2030.