New Caste Equation

The release last week of the outcome of the caste survey carried out in Bihar by the state government is a development which is bound to have a significant impact on the political scenario of India. Its figures relate only to Bihar no doubt but are bound to change the political equations across India.
There are several reasons for that. For one, it is the first such survey since Independence whose findings have been made public. The last such survey was the Census of 1931, which had information about the caste makeup of the country. The Manmohan Singh government had carried out such a survey towards the end of its term. But its results were never released by the Narendra Modi led National Democratic Alliance, NDA,government which succeeded the United Progressive Alliance government in 2014.
The Bihar survey made public by the Nitish Kumar headed state government shows that the Other Backward Classes, OBCs, constitute more than 63 per cent of population of the state. This includes 36 per cent people deemed to be extremely backward. The scheduled castes and tribes account for roughly 20 percent of the population. The so-called forward castes account for about 15 percent of the total population.
The release of the Bihar caste survey figures has led to demands across the country for holding a nationwide caste survey or for making it a regular part of the decadal census exercise.It may be noted here that the 2021 Census is still pending as the exercise could not take place at the time because of the Covid pandemic and restrictions.
The caste figures have come out at a time when there is increasing pressure and demands for creation of a more inclusive democratic order. There is a rising demand from the deprived and depressed masses for a greater share of power in the economic as well as political sphere.
One sign of that has been the passage of the bill to give women reservation in the Lok Sabha and state assemblies. But even when the bill was being considered, there was a demand that there should be reservation within reservation, and that the benefits of reservation should not go only to the women belonging to the upper classes.
Another dimension of the issue is because of the perceived focus of the current ruling coalition on support from the majority community in the country. By focusing on the OBC voters, the political parties and other groups demanding reservation for the other backward classes perhaps are trying to create a rival vote bank.
The next few months leading to Assembly elections in five states, and the subsequent national elections next year are going to see more demands for holding a nationwide caste census or survey, howsoever we designate it.  This is likely to be one of the major planks of the in the making opposition combine.
It would be interesting to see how the ruling dispensation tackles this challenge. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has already given an inkling of how he plans to deal with the opposition tactic. He has claimed more than once that he himself is the first obc leader to become the Prime Minister of the country.
It is to be seen if this will enable the BJP to overcome the impression that the party serves primarily the interests of the majority community. An interesting battle of narratives is in the offing.

(B I Saini is a Political Analyst with decades of journalistic experience. Retired as DG, News, AIR)