IMD forecasts below-normal monsoon rainfall

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday forecast below-normal southwest monsoon rainfall across the country during the June-September 2026 season, while warning of above-normal heatwave conditions in several states during June. In its updated long-range monsoon outlook, the IMD said the country is likely to receive seasonal rainfall amounting to 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error margin of ±4 per cent. This places the monsoon in the “below normal” category for the 2026 season.
The weather agency said below-normal rainfall is likely over Central India, South Peninsular India, Northwest India, and the Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ), which includes most rain-fed agricultural regions. However, Northeast India is expected to receive near-normal rainfall. According to the IMD, below-normal seasonal rainfall is likely across most parts of the country, except some areas in Northwest and Northeast India, eastern parts of the south peninsula, adjoining east-central regions, and isolated pockets of East India, where normal to above-normal rainfall may occur.
For June 2026, the IMD forecast rainfall below 92 per cent of the LPA for the country as a whole. Most regions are expected to receive below-normal rainfall during the month, except parts of Northwest India, Northeast India, the south peninsula, and isolated areas of Central India, where rainfall could remain normal to above normal.
The IMD also warned of above-normal temperatures across much of the country during June. Maximum temperatures are expected to remain above normal over most regions, while minimum temperatures are also likely to stay above normal in many parts of India. Above-normal heatwave days are expected in Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, and Andhra Pradesh, along with isolated regions of Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu. Rajasthan and Jharkhand, however, are likely to experience below-normal heatwave days.
During June, below-normal monthly rainfall is very likely over most parts of the country, except some parts of Northwest India, Northeast India and the south peninsula, along with isolated pockets of central India, where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely. The latest climate model forecasts indicate that El Nino conditions are likely to develop during the southwest monsoon season. Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions currently prevail over the Indian Ocean and are likely to continue during the monsoon season. In India, El Nino is associated with harsher summers and weaker monsoons.Meanwhile, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean and are expected to continue throughout the monsoon season.