Experts comment on the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China.
Wendy Cutler, Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) Vice President,
With China’s announcement of further tariff hikes against U.S. imports, it’s clear that hopes that China would blink first in this trade war are misplaced.
China is in for the long haul. Beijing has also admitted that it has reached the end point in retaliating with tariffs, perhaps signaling that it has lots of other tools in its arsenal that could be activated further should the U.S. respond today with additional measures.
The steep tariffs now in place—145% for Chinese imports to the U.S. and 125% for U.S. imports to China—virtually halt all goods trade between the two largest economies in the world.
How long these tariffs remain in place is an open question, but at some point both Washington and Beijing will recognize the need to re-engage and manage this deteriorating situation.
Daniel Russel, ASPI's Vice President of International Security and Diplomacy
Xi Jinping isn’t backing down, but he’s not blowing things up either. He’s betting that Trump’s tariff tantrum will collapse under the weight of the U.S. market response. In the meantime, Trump’s erratic behavior allows China to present itself as the stable, rules-respecting partner.
Beijing is shifting away from symmetrical retaliatory tariffs, signaling that it’s done playing Trump’s escalation game and instead is playing for the long-term strategic advantage.
By declaring it will ‘ignore’ future U.S. tariff hikes, Beijing is not trying to win the trade war—it’s trying to outlast it and to outmaneuver Trump. Beijing’s goals are to buffer its economy, expand diplomatic clout, and keep pressure on U.S. allies to hedge. Xi’s Southeast Asia tour is part of a strategy to shore up China’s economic ties in the region while Washington lashes out and alienates its partners.
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