El Nino threatens Asian crops, raise food supply concerns

Dry weather is disrupting crop planting across Asia, raising concerns about food supplies in the world’s most populous region. Adding to this, an expected severe El Niño weather pattern could inflict more damage. From ​India’s grain-producing northwestern plains to Australia’s eastern wheat belt and from Thailand’s rice fields to Indonesia’s vast palm oil plantations, hot weather and below-normal rains are hurting crops, forcing farmers to reduce planting, farmers, analysts and traders said. 
El Niño-driven dryness is a double blow for farmers already grappling with fertiliser and diesel shortages caused by the Iran war.  Wheat prices have risen about 20 per cent since the start of the year, largely on concerns over drought in key U.S. growing regions. Rice prices at major Southeast Asian export hubs have climbed around 15 per cent over the past month on rising production costs and fears of tighter supplies.
One of the strongest El Ninos on record is widely expected to develop in the second half of 2026, bringing hot-dry weather to Asia and excessive rains to the Americas, with global climate change making things worse. 
"The El Nino impact globally starts with Southeast Asia, India, Australia, before it has wider implications downstream in North America and South America," said Chris Hyde, a U.S.-based meteorologist at satellite data and imagery firm SkyFi. Hyde said early signs of drought are already visible on the company's high-resolution imagery platform, across parts of Asia.
Rice prices are edging up even though India, which accounts for 40 per cent of global exports, is sitting on ample supplies after years of near-record harvests. India mainly grows rice, soybeans, pulses, sugarcane and corn in the summer season.
Recent rains over parched Australian farmland have triggered late wheat sowing, but growers are wary of the El Nino in the coming months that could hit yields. The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting that many cropping areas across New South Wales and Queensland will see between 20 and 40 millimetres less rain than usual over the next three months.
El Nino is likely to be neutral for China and the Black Sea region, while bringing more rains to the Americas. "Statistically speaking, there is not much correlation with weather in the U.S. and El Nino, during the summer," said Drew Lerner, an agricultural meteorologist and president of World Weather Inc.