Covid cases likely to spike,may peak in October: Report

India is likely to see a rise in Covid-19 infections virus wave that may peak in October, according to a mathematical model by researchers who accurately predicted the tapering of a brutal surge of cases earlier this year. Researchers led by Mathukumalli Vidyasagar and Manindra Agrawal at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) in Hyderabad and Kanpur respectively said that the surge in Covid-19 cases will push the third wave of the coronavirus pandemic, which may peak in October. Vidyasagar told Bloomberg in an email that states with high Covid-19 cases, such as Kerala and Maharashtra, could “skew the picture.”

The third wave of Covid is unlikely to be as brutal as the second wave when India reported 400,000-plus daily cases and came down after that. The prediction by the researchers, who accurately forecast the lessening of the surge in Covid-19 cases earlier this year, is based on a mathematical model. But the forecast still underscores the need for India to accelerate its vaccination campaign, deploy surveillance methods to catch emerging hotspots and stay vigilant through genome sequencing given the potential for new variants to emerge. The delta strain now causing renewed outbreaks across the world was first identified in India last October.

Experts are concerned about complacency setting in as people resume social and business activity in the face of waning infections. India's first outbreak last year ebbed with limited damage, leading to a quick resumption of local travel and large-scale festivals that drove the emergence of a devastating second wave in March. Five months after the last wave started, daily infections in India have plateaued at around the 40,000 daily mark. For the past five days, roughly half the new cases are coming from the southern state of Kerala, making it potentially the next hotspot.