New party RSP takes early lead in Nepal’s 2026 general elections

Early trends from Nepal’s 2026 general elections indicate a strong surge for the newly formed Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), led by rapper-turned-politician Balendra Shah, as vote counting continues across the country. The party has emerged as the frontrunner in several constituencies, signalling a potential shift in Nepal’s political landscape following the turbulent political developments that led to the fall of the coalition government headed by KP Sharma Oli last year.
According to early counting trends reported by the Kathmandu Post, the RSP is leading in 47 of the 57 constituencies counted so far. The Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) (CPN-UML), led by Oli, is ahead in five seats, while the Nepali Congress — currently led by Gagan Thapa — is in third position with leads in four constituencies. Meanwhile, the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) headed by former prime minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, widely known as Prachanda, is leading in two seats, while the pro-monarchist Rastriya Prajatantra Party is ahead in one constituency.Party sources say the RSP has already secured victories in Kathmandu-1, Kathmandu-7, and Kathmandu-8, although the Election Commission of Nepal has yet to officially confirm the results. Among the declared winners from the party are Biraj Bhakta Shrestha from Kathmandu-8, Ranju Darshana from Kathmandu-1, and Ganesh Parajuli from Kathmandu-7.
In one of the closely watched constituencies, RSP candidate Ranju Darshana secured a decisive victory in Kathmandu-1 with 15,455 votes, defeating Prabal Thapa of the Nepali Congress, who polled 6,364 votes. Rabindra Mishra of the Rastriya Prajatantra Party finished third with 3,972 votes.However, the counting process has not been entirely smooth. In Syangja-2, vote counting has been temporarily halted after 171 ballots were discovered without the polling officer’s signature at a polling centre in Waling Municipality. Officials and political representatives are currently holding discussions at the district administration office to resolve the dispute.
The elections recorded around 60% voter turnout, marking Nepal’s first parliamentary polls since the violent Gen Z-led protests that forced the collapse of the Oli-led coalition government. The results are being closely watched as a test of whether new political forces can challenge Nepal’s long-established parties and political dynasties.The election has also brought renewed attention to several influential political families that continue to wield significant influence, including the Koirala, Deuba-Rana, Dahal, and Thapa (KC) families, which have historically dominated Nepal’s political landscape.
The rise of Balendra “Balen” Shah remains one of the most striking developments in the country’s politics. Shah first gained prominence after winning the Kathmandu mayoral election in 2022, defeating candidates from major parties and signalling growing public appetite for alternatives to traditional political leadership. His party’s early performance in the 2026 polls suggests that the momentum behind that political shift may now be expanding at the national level.Meanwhile, the election also represents a critical moment for former prime minister KP Sharma Oli, who at 73 is attempting a political comeback and seeking to re-establish his leadership within Nepal’s evolving political landscape. Counting is continuing across multiple constituencies, and the final outcome is expected to determine whether Nepal enters a new phase of politics led by emerging parties or returns to coalition governance dominated by established political forces.