Oil prices jump 5% as Trump signals no extension to Iran ceasefire

Global oil prices surged nearly 5% on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that he does not intend to extend a soon-to-expire ceasefire in the Iran conflict, raising fears of renewed geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions.According to information,Brent crude futures climbed $4.30, or 4.5%, to $99.78 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose $4.75, or 5.3%, to $94.36, reflecting heightened risk premiums in energy markets. Trump’s remarks that the U.S. military was “raring to go” if negotiations fail added to concerns over potential escalation in the region.
Uncertainty surrounding last-ditch diplomatic efforts persisted, with Pakistan stating there was no confirmation of Iran’s participation in peace talks with the United States. Tensions further intensified after U.S. forces reportedly boarded a large Iranian oil tanker just a day before the ceasefire deadline.Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz—a critical artery handling nearly 20% of global oil and LNG flows—remained severely disrupted, with only a handful of vessels transiting the route in the past 24 hours. The slowdown has raised alarms over potential supply bottlenecks and energy security risks.
The European Union is preparing contingency measures, including guidance for airlines on managing airport operations and passenger rights in the event of jet fuel shortages. Germany, Europe’s largest economy, said it is closely monitoring fuel supplies, although authorities maintain that refineries are adjusting to rising demand.Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signaled that the Druzhba pipeline, a key route for Russian oil supplies to Europe, could resume operations.

It is essential that the €90 billion European support package for Ukraine be unblocked. There can be no grounds for blocking it anymore. The EU asked Ukraine to repair the Druzhba oil pipeline, which had been destroyed by Russia. We have repaired it. We hope the EU will also… pic.twitter.com/kl5rcpcOfQ

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) April 21, 2026

However, industry sources indicated that Russia may halt oil exports from Kazakhstan to Germany via the pipeline starting May 1, adding another layer of uncertainty to global supply chains.In Russia, Ukrainian drone strikes targeted oil infrastructure in the Samara region, underscoring the broader geopolitical risks impacting energy markets.
Economic ripple effects are also becoming visible. Germany’s investor sentiment dropped to a more than three-year low in April, according to the ZEW institute, as businesses began to feel the wider impact of the Iran conflict beyond rising energy costs.In the United States, higher gasoline prices contributed to stronger-than-expected retail sales in March, boosting receipts at service stations. At the same time, Trump’s comments on monetary policy, including his push for rate cuts, have raised concerns among analysts about potential political influence on the Federal Reserve’s independence.
Market participants are now closely watching upcoming U.S. inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute and the Energy Information Administration. Analysts expect a drawdown of 1.8 million barrels in crude stocks for the week ended April 17, which, if confirmed, would mark the second consecutive weekly decline and further support prices.With geopolitical tensions escalating and supply uncertainties mounting, oil markets are expected to remain volatile in the near term.

(Business Correspondent)