Australia could face a fourfold increase in homelessness by 2035

Australia could face a fourfold increase in homelessness by 2035 if high-emissions climate scenarios continue, according to a new study by the University of Sydney. The research highlights how climate change and housing affordability are increasingly intertwined.
The study warns that even well-meaning housing policies could worsen affordability and homelessness if they fail to consider climate impacts. Rising insurance costs, disrupted construction supply chains, and shifting investment behaviors are expected to put additional pressure on housing nationwide.
Researchers project that homeownership could become twice as expensive, while rents could rise by up to 45% undehigh-emissions conditions. Even under low-emissionsscenarios, homelessness could double, and rental affordability could drop by 23% compared to 2020 levels.The team analyzed nearly two decades of housing, income, and demographic data to understand how climate-driven shocks affect affordability and homelessness. They cautioned that poorly designed policies targeting insurance premiums or mortgage rates could increase inequality, particularly for renters. An Australian builder Marko Matvikov has said that planning and building productivity in Australia has declined over the long term. 82% increase in the number of planners in Australia since 2006 and 50% increase in average housing approval and planning, he said.