The government of India surprised with its first advance estimate of a 7 per cent growth in real GDP in 2022-23. Most professional forecasting agencies had expected a growth closer to 6.7 per cent. Where was the disconnect? Manasi Swamy deciphers the government's estimates and finds more than one large inexplicable element in them. There is good reason to believe that government estimates are somewhat optimistic.

Agriculture has been one of India's sweet spots. The sector has grown well during India's most trying times. Mitika Malhotra presents a detailed crop-by-crop analysis of what we should be expecting from this sector during 2022-23. This is an intricate description involving cultivations and prices that motivate cultivation changes and also about expected yields in the two major crop seasons in India.

Growth in bank credit is being hailed as a strong indicator of the revival of the Indian economy. Bank credit has been growing very well even in the midst of high inflation and high interest rates. The RBI is optimistic about the growth because of the reduced gross non-performing assets of banks. Janaki Samant balances this optimism with the slight worsening of the balance sheet of the borrowers.

The Index of Consumer Sentiments (ICS) fell in November and December 2022. It lost some of the gains made during the festive season that lasted till October. Mahesh Vyas describes this correction. He also throws light on the growing disparity in the consumer sentiments of the rich and the poor households. Both have been recovering in 2022-23, but the recovery in the richer is much better than that of the poor.

Mahesh Vyas crunches the summaries of CMIE's CapEx database available in Economic Outlook to understand trends in commissioning of new capacities by the private sector. The trend till December is not very encouraging. Completion of projects