Opposition unity:work in progress

The meeting of opposition parties to forge unity has ended in Patna with some plus points but without a firm game plan to take on the ruling coalition headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his BJP..More than 15 political parties, representing a wide spectrum of opinion from Kashmir to Kanyakumari attended the Patna conclave, and that sends a positive signal of the possibility of unity to take on the well entrenched ruling dispensation. But it also became apparent that it is just the beginning and that a lot of work remains to be done.
The major hurdle, of course, is the political ambitions of the major parties seeking to forge unity. This became crystal clear with the Aam Aadmi Party staying away from the end of the conclave briefing. The Arvind Kejriwal led party stayed away from the briefing as it did not get a concrete assurance from the Congress that it will oppose in Parliament the ordinance issued by the Centre on the control of services in the National Capital Territory.
Sources in the Aam Aadmi Party say that the party will not attend the next round of opposition meetings to be held in Shimla in the second week of next month, if the Congress does not agree to support the AAP stand on the ordinance issue.
The Congress, on its part, does not appear to be in a hurry to clear its stand on Delhi ordinance issue. Perhaps, it wants to use the issue as a bargaining chip on matters such as seat sharing in states like Punjab as well as NCT Delhi.
While the differences between the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party have come out into the open, there are several such concerns in the background, which will come into the open as negotiations get under way for actual sharing of seats in the next Lok Sabha elections.
It remains to be seen if Trinamul Congress chief Mamata Banerjee would be willing to enter into any seat sharing deal with the Congress in West Bengal. The Congress has a partnership with the CPI-M in the state. The Trinamul will find it difficult, if not impossible, to enter into any deal including the Left parties in any partnership.
Uttar Pradesh will also pose a big challenge to the plans for opposition parties to put up common candidates against the BJP. The Mayawati led Bahujan Samaj Party was not invited to the opposition conclave in Patna but has a dedicated vote bank in Uttar Pradesh as well as several other parts of the country. It will be a tough proposition to bring together the Samajwadi Party, the BSP and the Congress and smaller opposition parties in Uttar Pradesh. Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Kerala and some other states will also pose obstacles in the way of opposition unity.
The Aam Aadmi Party’s national ambitions will pose a big challenge. In most states, it is trying to expand its foothold at the cost of the Congress, not that of the BJP. The Congress, one of the driving forces pushing for opposition unity, will find it difficult, if not impossible, to accommodate the Aam Aadmi Party.
But the Patna conclave has been a success in terms of changing the narrative in the country. Earlier the perception was that the ruling dispensation led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi is unbeatable. But the results of the Assembly elections in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka have made it clear that the tide is turning, and the BJP can be defeated in a fair and square election.
The opposition parties are meeting in Shimla in about a fortnight to take the next step in the quest for opposition unity. But a bigger challenge will come when Assembly elections take place in five states, including four states - Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Telangana - where the Congress is a major player. The opposition game plan in these states will point the direction in which way the wind is blowing.
An interesting phase is starting in India’s political landscape. It will spell out the direction in which the country moves in the next quarter century.

(Writer is a retd IIS officer and a senior political Analyst)