SBI projects India’s Q3 GDP growth above 8%

India’s economy is likely to achieve growth above the 8 per cent mark in the October to December quarter of FY26, supported by strong consumption trends, according to a report released by SBI Research on Tuesday.The report estimates real GDP growth at around 8.1 per cent in Q3 of FY26, which would mark the second consecutive quarter of expansion above 8 per cent. The momentum, it said, is being driven largely by resilient demand conditions across rural and urban segments.“High-frequency activity data indicates resilient economic activity in Q3 of FY26. Rural consumption remains strong, driven by positive signals from farm and non-farm activity. Supported by fiscal stimulus, urban consumption shows a consistent uptick since the last festive season,” SBI Research noted.
According to information,the official GDP numbers for the October–December quarter are scheduled to be released on February 27 by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. The upcoming data will be significant as it will mark the first quarterly GDP release under the revised series with 2022-23 as the new base year, replacing the earlier 2011-12 base.Alongside the Q3 figures, the ministry will also publish the Second Advance Estimates of GDP for 2025-26 and revised GDP data for the previous three financial years based on the updated base year.“Overall, we expect Q3FY26 real GDP growth of closer to 8.1 per cent. Given significant methodological changes, it is difficult to predict the direction of revision,” the SBI Research note said.
Earlier, in the First Advance Estimates released on January 7 under the 2011-12 series, the ministry had projected India’s economic growth at 7.4 per cent for FY26. For FY25, GDP growth was recorded at 6.5 per cent. In the first two quarters of the current fiscal year, growth stood at 7.8 per cent and 8.2 per cent, respectively, though these numbers are expected to be revised following the base year update.The statistical revision exercise extends beyond GDP. The Centre recently released Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data with a revised base year of 2024, replacing the earlier 2012 base.
Apart from the base year shift, both the new CPI and GDP series incorporate methodological changes aimed at better capturing economic activity. The revised framework will use more granular datasets, including GST collections, vehicle registration data from the e-Vahan system, and information on natural gas consumption, potentially improving measurement of sectoral output and overall growth dynamics.With two quarters of strong expansion and a new statistical framework coming into force, the upcoming GDP release is expected to provide clearer insights into the economy’s underlying strength in FY26.

(Business Correspondent)