Russia ready to boost oil supplies to India, China amid Gulf tensions

Amid mounting tensions in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, Russia has signalled its readiness to increase crude oil supplies to major Asian buyers, including India and China, in a move that could help cushion potential disruptions to global energy flows.Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Wednesday that Moscow is prepared to ramp up oil shipments to the two Asian economies if required, according to a report by Interfax. The statement comes at a time when geopolitical risks in the Middle East are threatening one of the world’s most critical energy transit routes.
Russia has already retained its position as India’s largest crude supplier in February, highlighting the growing energy ties between New Delhi and Moscow. Data from Kpler showed that India imported just over 1 million barrels per day (mbd) of Russian crude in February, slightly lower than the 1.1 mbd recorded in January. Meanwhile, shipments from Saudi Arabia surged sharply, with volumes rising nearly 30% month-on-month to exceed 1 mbd, narrowing the gap with Russian supplies.The offer from Moscow comes as tensions escalate around the Strait of Hormuz, through which a substantial share of global oil and gas shipments passes. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) recently claimed complete operational control over the narrow waterway, raising alarm across energy markets.According to sources,a senior naval official of the IRGC, Mohammad Akbarzadeh, told the Iranian Fars News Agency that the strategic channel is currently under the “complete control” of Iran’s naval forces. He warned that vessels attempting to transit the route could face threats, including missile strikes or stray drones, amid the ongoing hostilities in the region.
The latest developments have heightened concerns over global energy security and shipping safety in the Gulf. In response, Donald Trump said the United States Navy stands ready to escort oil tankers through the corridor if necessary, signalling Washington’s intent to maintain freedom of navigation in the region.For India, the stakes are particularly high. Nearly 2.5–2.7 million barrels per day of the country’s crude imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, largely sourced from Middle Eastern producers such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait. Besides,industry sources indicated that nearly 9.5 million barrels of Russian crude are currently aboard vessels near Indian waters and could arrive within weeks if refiners seek additional cargoes. The availability of these shipments could offer quick relief at a time when India’s crude inventories cover only about 25 days of demand, while stocks of refined fuels such as gasoil, gasoline and liquefied petroleum gas remain similarly limited. Officials in New Delhi are already exploring alternative supply options in case the Middle East conflict extends beyond the next two weeks, particularly as roughly 40% of India’s crude imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical oil transit corridor. Industry sources say Moscow could potentially help meet up to 40% of India’s crude requirements if supply disruptions deepen, although any increase in purchases would depend on government guidance as trade discussions with the United States continue. Rising geopolitical risks have also tightened the oil market, with traders indicating that discounts on Russian crude may narrow as the supply situation increasingly turns into a “seller’s market.”