China could record over 6 lakh daily Covid cases,if it opens up

If China dropped its zero-tolerance policy by lifting travel curbs, the country could face "colossal outbreak" with over 6.30 lakh patients per day. According to a report by the Peking University mathematicians, the real possibility of a colossal outbreak which would almost certainly put an unbearable burden on the medical system. The country on Saturday reported 23 new COVID-19 cases, including 20 imported ones as the country appears to have contained a recent spike of infections in Beijing and other cities.

Published last week by the Chinese Centre for Disease Control’s weekly, four researchers have warned of a “colossal outbreak”, which could put an “unaffordable burden” on the country’s health system if Beijing moved away from its current anti-Covid-19 strategies. “More efficient vaccinations or more specific treatment, preferably a combination of both, are needed before entry-exit quarantine measures and other Covid-19 response strategies in China can be safely lifted,”the report said.  Until Saturday, the total number of confirmed Covid-19 cases on the mainland was 98,631 while the death toll stood at 4,636.

The study used data for August from the five countries to conclude that China could have logged between 2.6 lakh to 6.3 lakh cases every day if similar strategies to fight the pandemic had been in place, with the worst-case scenario of 637,155 daily infections becoming a reality if the model adopted by the US, a country with much less population and population density, was relied on. The researchers estimated that China would have logged 454,198 and 275,793 daily Covid-19 cases if it had put in place strategies implemented by France and the UK. China was not ready and could not afford to lift entry-exit quarantine measures without more efficient vaccinations or specific treatment. Currently, people arriving from abroad have to undergo 21-day quarantine in designated hotels.