World Goods trade growth likely to decline by 1.2% in 2024: GTRI

The growth in the global merchandise trade is likely to decline by 1.2 per cent, in value terms, due to the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, economic think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said on Thursday. Amidst economic recovery efforts and evolving trade dynamics, the WTO's latest forecasts of 2.6% growth in world goods trade volume for 2024 and a further acceleration to 3.3% in 2025 reflect optimism regarding the trajectory of global trade dynamics.
The US dollar value of world merchandise trade fell 5% in 2023 to USD 24.01 trillion, but this was mostly offset by a strong increase in commercial services trade, which rose 9% to USD 7.54 trillion. This allowed world goods and commercial services exports on a balance of payments basis to slip 2% in 2023 to USD 30.8 trillion.As the World Trade Organization (WTO) unveils its forecast for global trade volume, experts raise concerns about the absence of analysis regarding trade values. While trade volume projections provide insight into quantity dynamics, the omission of trade values overlooks crucial aspects of trade performance, prompting calls for a more comprehensive approach to assessment.
In 2023, merchandise exports totalled $23.8 trillion, while imports stood at $24.2 trillion. This represents a year-on-year decline of 4.5 per cent in exports and 5.4 per cent in imports. For commercial services, exports rose to $7.8 trillion and exports rose to $7.8 trillion and imports $7.2 trillion in 2023. Overall, the total trade (both merchandise and services) slightly decreased in 2023, with exports at $31.6 trillion (down by 1.1 per cent) and imports at $31.5 trillion (down by 2.1 per cent) compared to 2022 , according to estimates.
The decline in world merchandise trade was due to geopolitical tensions, the rising protectionist war in Ukraine, Red Sea shipping disruptions, lower primary commodity prices, and exchange rate fluctuations.In exports, India ranked 17th globally in 2023(improved from 18th in 2022), with a 1.8 per cent share in world trade, amounting to $432 billion, a 5 per cent fall from 2022.On imports, India ranked 8th in 2023(improved from 9th in 2022), holding a 2.8 per share, with a value of $673 billion, marking a 7 per cent decline from the previous year,stated report.

(Ira Singh, Asstt Editor, Gandhinagar)