Newsinc24 Team 
The University of Chicago's Energy Policy Institute's report that claimed that the 'super El Nino' might cause around 15,800 additional heat-related deaths in India over the next six months, was measured using two components, seasonal temperature forecasts, and temperature-mortality relationships, a co-author of the study said. Emily Grover-Kopec, a co-author, told a news agency that temperature-mortality relationships were assessed using "one of the most commonly referenced seasonal forecasts" from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF SEAS5).
The recently published report claimed that the climate phenomenon could push global land temperatures 1.2 degrees Celsius above normal in the coming months, resembling the higher temperatures that climate change is projected to deliver in the next 20 years. "When considering a wide suite of seasonal forecasts that are available, the ECMWF SEAS sits in the middle in terms of the projected temperature anomalies, so this presents a relatively moderate view. We also used temperature-mortality relationships that were peer-reviewed and published in one of the most rigorous economics journals, the Quarterly Journal of Economics in November, 2022," Grover-Kopec, who is also a director at the climate and energy practice at the Rhodium Group, said.
Extreme heat caused by this year's "super-El Niño" could result in as many as 451,000 excess deaths across the globe from June this year to February 2027, researchers with the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab said. The number of extremely hot days is likely to rise by 44% compared to normal years.The country likely to suffer the most excess heat-related fatalities from September 2026 to February 2027 is Nigeria with 31,400, followed by Indonesia with 19,300 and Sudan with 17,600. Heat in Africa's Sahel region, including Niger and Chad as well as Nigeria and Sudan, is likely to cause an additional 66,800 deaths over the six-month period, said the report.The US is in the top 20 most affected nations, with 3,500 projected additional heat deaths.
Climate Impact Lab described this year's El Niño as a "postcard from the future", delivering temperatures that will become normal in just a few decades. The El Niño currently heating up the planet burst through the highest temperature ever recorded for the phenomenon on Monday, several months before its expected peak. The heat is so much greater than previous events that scientists have called it “mind-blowing” and “Godzilla-level”. El Niños are natural climate events but may be made worse by global heating.
“Increasing emergency response and better targeting our efforts can save many lives this year,” said report co-author Dr Tamma Carleton at the University of California, Berkeley. “But 20 years from now, once today’s extreme temperatures become the new normal, we don’t want to be in a constant state of emergency.. We need to mobilise now to design, deploy and evaluate the tools that will save lives in the years ahead.”
