Experts preview the Quad Foreign Ministers meeting

Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) experts preview the Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting occuring from June 30 to July 2 in Washington D.C.

Danny Russel - Vice President of International Security and Diplomacy

The timing of the Quad ministerial meeting may be somewhat awkward. The leaders were miffed that President Trump skipped planned meetings with each of them at the NATO Summit, and Japan pulled out of this week’s bilateral 2+2 talks in frustration with the Trump administration piling on demands for defense spending hikes and trade concessions.

But the three countries see the Quad as a vital tool to manage the U.S. They want Washington anchored and steady in the Indo-Pacific rather than lurching between engagement and confrontation. They see the Quad also as a vehicle for contesting China’s efforts to dominate the region, although the partners are wary of allowing Washington to use the grouping as a blunt instrument against Beijing. The ministers have work to do preparing for the leaders’ summit in Delhi later this year and are working to signal that Indo-Pacific coordination remains alive despite global diversions and bilateral tensions.

All the ministers, including Secretary Rubio, will soon attend the ASEAN Regional Forum. Participation in the annual meeting – usually after stops in Tokyo and Seoul – is virtually mandatory for a Secretary of State. This year in particular, skipping it would have confirmed fears that the Administration is again deeply mired in the Middle East, leaving China free to castigate “America First” unilateralism.

Emma Chanlett-Avery - Director for Political-Security Affairs

Today’s foreign ministerial may give some indication if the Quad will be the best-positioned platform for the Trump administration to engage multilaterally in the Indo-Pacific. After Japan, Korea, and Australia declined to send heads of state to the NATO Summit last week, there are significant concerns about the future of regional cooperation, but the Quad could fill that gap.

Although all four countries share concern about China’s intentions in the region, getting buy-in and cooperation from Southeast Asia, South Asia, and the Pacific Islands requires careful messaging so that countries do not feel boxed in to taking sides in the U.S.-China competition.

Many of the Biden administration’s core Quad activities on climate and global health are less likely to be prioritized by Secretary Rubio in this meeting. Maritime security could emerge as a unifying arena that the Quad could champion in the name of maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific.

Farwa Aamer - Director of South Asia Initiatives

The outcomes of this meeting will be significant in shaping the agenda for the leadership-level Quad summit later this year in India. While the Indo-Pacific will remain central, recent flashpoints like the Iran-Israel conflict, engagement with Russia, and India-Pakistan tensions could also surface. Diverging perspectives among Quad members on these issues may temper the strength of any unified commitments.

For India, the Quad FM meeting comes at a pivotal moment, amid high-stakes trade negotiations with the U.S. ahead of next week’s deadline, and two months into the ceasefire with Pakistan that New Delhi views cautiously and still doesn't attribute to any external mediation. New Delhi has been closely following Washington's engagements with Islamabad (and Pindi) since. It’s a key opportunity to reinforce the strategic depth of the U.S.-India partnership, even as recent differences test its resilience.