IMD predicts above-normal monsoon rains in 2025

India is likely to receive above-average monsoon rains in 2025, the government said on Tuesday, raising expectations of higher farm and economic growth in Asia’s third-biggest economy. The monsoon, which usually arrives over the southern tip of Kerala state around June 1 and retreats in mid-September, is expected to reach 105% of the long-term average this year, M. Ravichandran, secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, told a news conference. The India Meteorological Department defines average or normal rainfall as ranging between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) for the four-month season.
The officials said all key climate factors — including the El Nino and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) — are currently in a neutral phase. These neutral conditions are considered favourable for a healthy monsoon.India Meteorological Department (IMD) chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said. El Nino conditions, which contribute to below-normal monsoon in the Indian subcontinent, are also unlikely to develop this year.Climate scientists say the number of rainy days is declining while heavy rain events (more rain over a short period) are increasing, leading to frequent droughts and floods. Above-normal rainfall during the monsoon also does not necessarily mean that it will be evenly distributed.
Apart from these, another positive indicator this year is the reduced snow cover over Eurasia and the Himalayan region. Historically, lower snow cover in these areas has been associated with stronger monsoon rainfall in India. With favourable ocean and atmospheric conditions in place, this year’s monsoon is expected to be above-average and provide much-needed relief to the agricultural sector